By Jordan Robinson, www.wnba.com | Photo courtesy of www.wnba.com
(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx
Game 1: Lynx at Liberty: Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 2: Lynx at Liberty: Sunday, Oct. 13, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 3: Liberty at Lynx: Wednesday, Oct. 16, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 4: Liberty at Lynx: Friday, Oct. 18, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Game 5: Lynx at Liberty: Sunday, Oct. 20, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Matchup Stats: Liberty vs. Lynx | Lynx vs. Liberty
And then there were two. The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx will square off in the WNBA Finals for the first time in history. To get here, the Liberty swept the Atlanta Dream and dominated the semi-finals against the Las Vegas Aces, winning the series 3-1. As for the Lynx, they swept the Phoenix Mercury and came out on top of a winner-take-all Game 5 versus the Connecticut Sun. Deep down, we basketball fans wanted this: the two top-seeded teams battling it out for the ultimate crown.
Historically, the Finals have only favored one of these franchises. The Lynx have won four WNBA championships (2011, 2013, 2015, 2017), which is tied with the Houston Comets and Seattle Storm for most all time. Cheryl Reeve, the 2024 Coach of the Year, was the head coach for all four titles. Meanwhile, the Liberty has served as the runner-up five times, dating back to the league’s debut season in 1997. That’s the most any franchise has made it to the Finals and lost.
Zooming back into this regular season, the Lynx have had the Liberty’s number, winning three of the four meetings, which includes the Commissioner’s Cup Championship in June. Minnesota is the only team to defeat New York multiple times this season. But this is the postseason, and so far, the superstars for each team have been ballin’. The Liberty’s Sabrina Ionescu is averaging a staggering 20.7 ppg in the playoffs, shooting a red-hot 46% from 3-point land. Breanna Stewart has been a ball hawk on the defensive end and scoring at will with 20 points per contest (while adding eight blocks and six steals in the playoffs). And Leonie Fiebich, at the lengthy 6’4, has proven to be an integral piece to this Liberty roster.
But the Lynx’s Napheesa Collier might be playing the best basketball in the league right now. She’s averaging almost 30 ppg in the postseason—don’t forget about the 42-point eruption in the first round! She’s been poetically scoring around the rim (59% on 2-pointers) and drilling it 45% from deep. Every move is fluid; every counter move is diligent. She’s nearly unstoppable. Plus, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year has led the top defensive team with two blocks and 1.1 steals per game. Collier’s point guard Courtney Williams, who exploded for 24 points and seven assists in Game 5 of the semi-finals, is also peaking at the right time.
Reeve and Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello both have championship pedigree. The game-to-game adjustments and defensive schemes will be top-notch. We’re in for such a treat.
Key Players:
Jonquel Jones, New York
Jones got in early foul trouble in Game 3 of the semi-finals against Las Vegas. She had to sit for extended minutes, starting as early as seven minutes into the second quarter. With her on the bench, it glared to viewers just how important Jones is to this Liberty team. They missed her scoring (at all three levels) and the paint presence on the defensive end. But, frankly, some of her fouls were unnecessary ones. Fouls that you don’t do when you know you’re an extremely valuable asset to your team’s chances of winning. She’ll have to play smarter; Minnesota will attack Jones, aim to get her flustered, and eliminate her from the equation altogether. Not getting block-happy or being over-aggressive on hedges will be crucial to staying on the floor.
Jones averaged only 10 points per game on 25 shots in the three-game regular season series. That’s only about eight shots per game. In the Commissioner’s Cup, she went 0-3 for a dismal three points, all from the free-throw line. This can’t happen again. New York should exploit Minnesota’s lack of post size in the Finals by feeding Jones deep in the paint and have Jones crash the offensive glass.
Jones was excellent in last season’s Finals. She had back-to-back 20+ point performances. The Liberty will look for her to perform similarly as they hold a home-court advantage.
Bridget Carelton, Minnesota
Minnesota (and Liberty) fans remember what Carelton did during the Commissioner’s Cup in New York. A team-high 23 points, six 3-pointers, five assists, and three steals. Some even say she should’ve won the game’s MVP award for her late surge. But stats aside, Carelton has the confidence to come into New York and make a real difference. We, as fans, want an old-fashioned shoot-out. Ionescu and Carelton’s stroke should make us run to grab umbrellas because it’s raining 3s. Carelton has that power. She can get hot in a hurry.
The Lynx are at their best when they move the ball—they led the league in team assists. However, there were spurts in the Sun series when the ball got sticky. It would stay on one side of the court and not zip around the horn like it typically does. Shooters like Carelton suffer when this happens. She combined for eight points in the last two semi-final contests. She’s primed for a breakout performance in these Finals. With Collier garnering more attention and potentially double teams, Carelton must float to the open spots along the arch to make herself available and then knock down the open jumper.
It’s the Finals, baby! Everyone will need to be at the top of their game, Carelton and Jones included. Phee and Stewie, former UConn teammates and summer Olympic gold medalists, are surging right now, but only one can be crowned this season’s WNBA champion. The final quest starts Thursday on ESPN.